MLB Recap · June 28, 2024

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

COL3
Final
CWS5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
COL000002100330
CWS01000400-580

The Story

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-3 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 28, 2024, in a game that remained tight through five innings before a decisive sixth-inning outburst settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the White Sox a 47% chance of winning at home, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100% by the final out.

The sixth inning was where the game's entire narrative was written. Brenton Doyle briefly flipped the script for Colorado with a home run off Drew Thorpe that shifted win probability 24.1 points in the Rockies' favor, giving them a momentary lead. Chicago answered immediately and emphatically in the bottom half against Dakota Hudson, stringing together a Luis Robert Jr. double worth 9.1 percentage points of win probability and an Andrew Vaughn walk that added another 9.3 points. The decisive blow came from Tommy Pham, whose single off Justin Lawrence carried a game-high 16.2-point win-probability swing and capped a four-run frame that put Chicago firmly in control.

On the individual ledger, Pham finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-19.5%, supported by a plus-1.5 RE24, while Vaughn's plus-16.9% WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 reflected his central role in the rally. Doyle's home run kept him at plus-17.7% WPA despite Colorado's loss. On the mound, John Brebbia led Chicago's relievers with a plus-8.1% WPA contribution, and Michael Kopech added plus-6.3% while retiring Colorado in the ninth, a frame in which Brendan Rodgers' groundout double play swung win probability 12.4 points against the Rockies and extinguished any remaining threat.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025COL bats firstFinalCWS win %COL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Brenton Doyle Home Run
Top 6th · off Drew Thorpe
+24.1%
Tommy Pham Single
Bot 6th · off Justin Lawrence
+16.2%
Brendan Rodgers Grounded Into DP
Top 9th · off Michael Kopech
-12.4%
Andrew Vaughn Walk
Bot 6th · off Dakota Hudson
+9.3%
Luis Robert Jr. Double
Bot 6th · off Dakota Hudson
+9.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Tommy Pham+19.5%+1.5 RE24
Brenton Doyle+17.7%+1.7 RE24
Andrew Vaughn+16.9%+1.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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