Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 1 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Cincinnati Reds 1-0 on June 28, 2024, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 59 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The lone run of the game came in the bottom of the third inning, and St. Louis made it stand through nine frames behind a collective pitching effort that systematically dismantled any Cincinnati threat. The Reds finished with four hits and an error while the Cardinals matched them with four hits of their own, leaving the margin razor-thin on paper but decisive in outcome.
The fifth inning proved to be the most consequential stretch for Cincinnati's fortunes. Elly De La Cruz grounded out against Andre Pallante in a spot that cost the Reds 10.1 percentage points of win probability, the single largest swing of the game, and Luke Maile followed with a flyout off Pallante that shed another 8.0 percentage points. Those two outs effectively extinguished what had been Cincinnati's most viable scoring opportunity. The Reds did apply late pressure in the eighth, where De La Cruz drew a walk off JoJo Romero to add 7.9 percentage points back, but Noelvi Marte immediately surrendered that ground by striking out against Andrew Kittredge at a cost of 7.7 percentage points.
On the Cardinals side, Ryan Fernandez led all pitchers with a model-estimated 21.9 percent win probability added, followed by Frankie Montas at 18.5 percent and closer Ryan Helsley at 15.2 percent, a distribution that illustrates how broadly the St. Louis staff shared the burden of protecting the one-run lead. Among Reds batters, Nick Martini led the way at plus 6.9 percent WPA, drawing a walk off Pallante in the sixth that briefly kept Cincinnati's hopes alive, while Jonathan India contributed plus 4.3 percent WPA with a positive 0.8 RE24. The DiamondIQ model favors the Cardinals in games where their bullpen can consolidate an early lead, and this result aligned with exactly that pattern.