Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-2 on June 28, 2024 at American Family Field, with all six runs scored in the fourth inning settling a game that remained unchanged the rest of the way. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 67% pre-game win probability favoring Milwaukee and moved to 100% by the final out, a trajectory almost entirely shaped by a single swing in the bottom of the fourth.

That swing came from Jackson Chourio, whose home run off Jameson Taillon represented the single most decisive moment of the night, shifting win probability by +40.5% and effectively ending any competitive tension the Cubs might have carried. Chourio finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a +39.5% WPA and a +3.7 RE24, numbers that reflect how thoroughly his one contribution restructured the outcome. The Cubs had briefly seized momentum in the top of the fourth, with Seiya Suzuki's home run off Colin Rea adding +11.6% win probability and a Dansby Swanson single contributing another +8.2%, giving Chicago a 2-0 lead. Milwaukee's four-run answer in the bottom half erased that advantage entirely and handed it back with interest.

From the fifth inning on, Cubs hitters were unable to generate any meaningful threat. A Patrick Wisdom flyout in the seventh cost Chicago 9.1% win probability, and Ian Happ's double play in the sixth removed another 7.0%, underscoring how thoroughly Milwaukee's pitching staff shut the door. Jared Koenig led all pitchers with a +17.2% WPA, supported by Trevor Megill at +6.3% and Elvis Peguero at +5.1%. The Cubs finished with two errors against one for Milwaukee, and the final line of 5 hits apiece made the 4-2 margin a clean reflection of how the fourth inning, and Chourio in particular, decided everything.