Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Cincinnati Reds 9-5 at Great American Ball Park on June 25, 2024, building an early lead that the Reds could never overcome. Pittsburgh struck quickly, plating three runs in the first inning and adding three more in the third against Hunter Greene, effectively burying Cincinnati before the game reached its midpoint. The DiamondIQ model had opened with Cincinnati holding a 53 percent home win probability, but that figure eroded steadily as the Pirates extended their advantage, finishing at zero percent.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the early innings, where individual outs carried outsized swing value. Santiago Espinal's groundout in the bottom of the second shifted win probability eight and a half percent against Cincinnati, and Spencer Steer's groundout to open the bottom of the first moved the needle another eight percent in Pittsburgh's favor, both coming off Mitch Keller. On the Pittsburgh side, Jared Triolo's flyout in the top of the first added 6.4 percent to the Pirates' win probability, and Andrew McCutchen's groundout in the second contributed another 6.3 percent, reflecting the high-leverage context those at-bats carried against Hunter Greene. Edward Olivares delivered a single in the third that added 6.2 percent, extending the Pittsburgh advantage further.

Mitch Keller was the game's dominant individual performer, producing a WPA of plus 18.8 percent on the mound as he repeatedly retired Cincinnati hitters in consequential situations. Elly De La Cruz led all position players with a WPA of plus 11.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 3.5, providing Cincinnati's most productive offensive contribution, including a hand in the Reds' three-run fifth inning. Triolo finished at plus 7.6 percent WPA for Pittsburgh, while McCutchen added plus 6.7 percent, each contributing to a balanced Pirates attack that the DiamondIQ model's estimates reflected as dominant from the game's earliest moments.