Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-1 at Oracle Park on June 25, 2024, a result that left little doubt by the final out. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with a 55 percent home win probability for the Giants, and that number climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly San Francisco controlled the contest. The Cubs managed just four hits and never found a sustained offensive threat, while the Giants built their advantage in two separate clusters — a pair of runs in the second inning and a decisive three-run eighth — to pull away without serious resistance.

The game's most damaging single moment came in the top of the sixth, when Ian Happ grounded into a double play off Taylor Rogers, a sequence that swung win probability 11.3 percent against the Cubs and effectively ended any realistic Chicago comeback scenario. The Cubs' brightest offensive moment came in the third, when Michael Busch singled off Randy Rodriguez for a 9.6 percent win-probability gain, the play that produced Chicago's lone run and represented their high-water mark of the night. San Francisco answered in the eighth, where Brett Wisely's double off Colten Brewer added 8.1 percent to the Giants' win probability, followed shortly by Matt Chapman's run-scoring single for an additional 7.2 percent swing, putting the game out of reach entirely.

Among individual performers, Matt Chapman led all batters with a 2.0 RE24, and his 7.1 percent WPA contribution anchored the Giants' eighth-inning surge. Brett Wisely posted a 1.0 RE24 and 8.3 percent WPA, while Michael Busch was the lone Cubs bright spot at plus-0.9 RE24 and 9.0 percent WPA. On the mound, Kyle Hendricks led all pitchers with a 12.2 percent WPA contribution despite allowing the early Giants runs, with Sean Hjelle adding 11.7 percent and Tyler Rogers contributing 10.8 percent as San Francisco's bullpen locked down the win.