Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 11-5 on June 24, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, turning what began as a scoreless game through three innings into a decisive home victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Cincinnati a 54% win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting just how thoroughly the Reds seized control once the scoring began.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth inning, where Cincinnati did the bulk of its damage against Pittsburgh starter Bailey Falter. Spencer Steer opened the floodgates with a double that shifted win probability by plus 10.9%, and Stuart Fairchild followed with a double of his own worth plus 10.7%, the two most impactful individual plays of the game. Tyler Stephenson added a single in the same frame worth plus 8.4%, and the Reds plated five runs in the inning to break the game open. Pittsburgh responded with a two-run fifth against Carson Spiers, but Bryan Reynolds drew a walk that swung probability plus 7.6% and Yasmani Grandal singled for plus 6.9%, keeping the Pirates briefly alive before Cincinnati answered with four more runs in the bottom half of the fifth to push the lead to a comfortable margin. The Reds added four additional runs in the sixth to put the game fully out of reach.

Steer finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer at plus 15.5% WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, while Reynolds led Pittsburgh at plus 14.4% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 despite the loss. Edward Olivares also contributed positively for Cincinnati at plus 10.6% WPA and plus 1.2 RE24. The Reds finished with 12 hits to Pittsburgh's 10, and each team committed one error. On the pitching side, Justin Wilson, Josh Fleming, and Lucas Sims each posted a neutral 0.0% WPA in their respective appearances.