Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres edged the Washington Nationals 7-6 in ten innings on June 24, 2024, at Petco Park, rallying from a three-run deficit in the bottom of the tenth to secure the walk-off victory. San Diego entered with the DiamondIQ model's estimate sitting at 56% in their favor, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%. The Padres had built a 3-0 lead through two innings before Washington chipped away with single runs in the third, fifth, and seventh, then exploded for three runs in the top of the tenth to take a 6-3 advantage heading into the bottom half.

The tenth inning proved to be the decisive stretch, and Washington's bullpen could not hold the lead. Hunter Harvey entered to close it out, but the frame unraveled in dramatic fashion. Jackson Merrill opened the Padres half with a single that added 23.8 percentage points to San Diego's win probability. After David Peralta's pop out briefly swung momentum back toward Washington by 30.4 points, Jurickson Profar delivered the killing blow, a walk-off single that shifted win probability by 74.2 points and finished the rally. Profar ended as the game's most impactful offensive player, finishing with a WPA of plus-64.4 and a RE24 of plus-0.8.

Washington had its own standout performers in the top of the tenth, where the Nationals briefly appeared to have the game in hand. Keibert Ruiz smashed a double off Enyel De Los Santos that moved the needle 35.3 points, finishing the night with a WPA of plus-26.5 and a RE24 of plus-0.7. Nick Senzel followed with a home run on the very next at-bat, a swing worth 34.4 win-probability points that gave him a WPA of plus-25.4 and a RE24 of plus-1.2 on the night. For San Diego, Derek Law led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-20.9, followed by Robert Suarez at plus-13.5 and Jeremiah Estrada at plus-10.6, as the bullpen collectively kept the Padres within striking distance before the tenth-inning comeback sealed it.