Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants came from behind to defeat the Chicago Cubs 5-4 at Oracle Park on June 24, 2024, in a game that remained tight through eight innings before a dramatic ninth-inning rally sealed the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 54 percent home win probability for San Francisco, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out. Chicago had built a 4-1 advantage through five innings, with three runs scoring in the top of the fifth, but the Giants chipped away with a run in the sixth to set the stage for a decisive late push.
The game turned on a sequence of pivotal moments in the eighth and ninth innings. Heliot Ramos delivered a double off Justin Steele in the bottom of the eighth that swung win probability 17.2 percentage points in San Francisco's favor, though the Cubs' bullpen initially limited further damage, with Jorge Soler's flyout off Tyson Miller costing the Giants 16.4 percentage points and Wilmer Flores striking out to surrender another 15.1. The Giants ultimately pushed three runs across in the ninth off Drew Smyly to complete the comeback, with Wilmer Flores drawing a bases-loaded walk that shifted win probability 37.4 percentage points toward San Francisco, followed by Nick Ahmed drawing another walk worth 24.5 percentage points, the two biggest single-play swings of the contest.
Among the top individual performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Nick Ahmed finished with the game's highest WPA at plus-43.0 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-2.1, making him the most impactful offensive contributor. Ramos posted a plus-19.6 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Flores contributed a net plus-15.1 WPA despite his eighth-inning strikeout. On the pitching side, Tyson Miller led all pitchers with a plus-31.5 WPA, followed by Spencer Howard at plus-16.9 and Spencer Bivens at plus-8.0, as the Giants bullpen ultimately preserved the one-run win.