Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on June 24, 2024, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability entering the game at a near-even 49% before ultimately closing at 100% in favor of St. Louis. The Cardinals built their winning margin in a decisive third inning, during which Willson Contreras delivered the single biggest win-probability swing of the game, a single off Spencer Schwellenbach that added 11.1% to St. Louis's chances. Alec Burleson followed that up with a double off Schwellenbach that added another 8.7%, and the Cardinals pushed four runs across in that frame, which stood as their entire offensive output for the night.

Atlanta made a late push in the ninth inning, cutting the deficit to one run and threatening to complete a comeback against Ryan Helsley, but the rally ultimately fell short. Sean Murphy drew a walk off Helsley that added 10.6% win probability to the Braves' chances, briefly injecting life into the Atlanta ninth. However, Travis d'Arnaud's sacrifice fly, which moved the game within one, still represented a net negative swing of 9.6% in win probability for Atlanta given the situation's potential, and Zack Short's strikeout to end a key at-bat cost the Braves 10.9% in win probability, effectively sealing the Cardinals' victory.

Lance Lynn was the game's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, his outing contributing 19.8% in win probability added to lead all pitchers. Among position players, Contreras finished with a WPA of plus 8.9% and an RE24 of plus 0.3, while Brendan Donovan posted the strongest run-environment contribution among Cardinals hitters at plus 1.1 RE24 to go with plus 8.7% WPA. Burleson added plus 8.0% WPA and plus 0.5 RE24, making the third inning the Cardinals' three most impactful offensive contributors all left their marks in a single decisive frame.