Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-4 at Great American Ball Park on June 23, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model had opening at nearly a coin flip, with Cincinnati carrying a 47 percent pre-game win probability that ultimately fell to zero. The game remained scoreless through the first three innings before breaking open decisively in the fourth. Connor Wong delivered the biggest single swing of the night, connecting on a home run off Nick Lodolo that shifted win probability 17.5 points in Boston's favor. Jeimer Candelario answered for Cincinnati in the bottom half with a single off Brennan Bernardino that moved the needle 7.0 points toward the Reds, though Will Benson's flyout against Greg Weissert in the same frame swung things 6.5 points back toward Boston and effectively stalled the Reds' momentum in the inning.

The sixth inning featured another round of scoring from both sides. Rob Refsnyder added a home run off Brent Suter worth 7.0 points of win probability for the Red Sox, pushing Boston's cushion further. Cincinnati responded with a Stuart Fairchild single off Brad Keller that accounted for a 6.5-point swing back toward the home side, and the Reds plated three in the inning to make it a game, but they could not complete the comeback over the final three frames.

Among the night's top performers by the DiamondIQ model's win probability accounting, Jarren Duran led all batters at plus-15.2 percent WPA alongside a 1.6 RE24, making him the most impactful offensive contributor overall despite Wong's home run being the single largest play. Wong finished at plus-13.6 percent WPA, while Candelario paced Cincinnati at plus-10.4 percent. Out of the bullpen, Greg Weissert led Boston's relief corps at plus-9.6 percent WPA, with Zack Kelly and Chris Martin each contributing positively as well, collectively preserving the three-run lead through the game's final innings.