San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-3 at Busch Stadium on June 23, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate suggested was well within range from the outset, having pegged the Cardinals as 59% pre-game favorites. St. Louis did its heaviest damage early, scoring three runs in the first inning and one more in the second to build a 4-0 cushion that ultimately proved insurmountable. Sonny Gray was the central figure in suppressing any San Francisco response, finishing as the game's most valuable pitcher by the model's accounting with a WPA of +19.6%, with a particularly telling moment coming in the top of the second when Michael Conforto's flyout off Gray carried a -6.0% win-probability swing for the Giants — a sequence that reinforced St. Louis's grip on the game.

San Francisco made a late push in the eighth inning, and the frame produced the two most consequential batting plays of the night in opposite directions. Wilmer Flores doubled off JoJo Romero to generate a +9.2% WPA swing for the visitors, and a Thairo Estrada walk added another +5.4%, trimming the Cardinals' lead to 5-3. But Brandon Crawford answered in the bottom half, doubling off Taylor Rogers for a +12.2% WPA gain that helped seal the outcome and made Crawford the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at +10.7% with a +0.6 RE24. Flores led all batters in RE24 at +1.0, while Dylan Carlson rounded out the top three position players by WPA at +7.0% despite finishing even in run expectancy. Ryan Helsley added +6.3% WPA out of the Cardinals bullpen to help close it out, as the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved to 100% certainty in St. Louis's favor by game's end.