Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox silenced a Comerica Park crowd that had entered the night with the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing Detroit's win probability at 73%, rolling to a 5-1 victory on June 22, 2024. Chicago put up all the runs it needed across the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings, holding the Tigers to a single run in the eighth and finishing with 12 hits against just one error allowed on either side.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the fourth against Kenta Maeda, when Nicky Lopez delivered a double that shifted win probability by 11.3 percentage points, immediately followed by a Luis Robert Jr. double worth 6.9 points and a Paul DeJong single that added another 9.9 points. That inning alone carved the heart out of Detroit's chances. Andrew Vaughn extended the damage in the fifth with a single off Will Vest that moved the needle another 9.2 points, and Chicago added two more runs in the sixth to put the game firmly out of reach. Colt Keith's double off John Brebbia in the bottom of the eighth, worth 7.2 points, accounted for Detroit's most meaningful moment, but by then the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Detroit win had fallen to zero percent.

Drew Thorpe was the engine of the outcome on the mound, contributing 35.4 percentage points of win probability across his outing, a figure that dwarfed every other individual contribution in the game. At the plate, Lopez led all position players with a combined WPA of plus-16.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.7, while Korey Lee added plus-11.3 WPA and Robert contributed plus-8.4 WPA despite finishing with a negative RE24 of minus-0.2. The White Sox did not waste their opportunities against a Detroit pitching staff that had little answer once Chicago's lineup found its footing in the middle innings.