Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-2 on June 21, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a nearly even 49 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Boston committed three errors on the night, finishing with six hits, while Cincinnati generated seven hits and played clean defense throughout.

The game's decisive sequence unfolded in two separate innings. Jonathan India set the tone in the bottom of the second with a home run off Kutter Crawford, a swing worth plus 7.6 percent in win probability. The third inning then featured a direct exchange of momentum: Jarren Duran answered with a solo home run off Andrew Abbott in the top half, a play valued at plus 10.6 percent, only for Jeimer Candelario to match it exactly with a home run off Crawford in the bottom half, also registering plus 10.6 percent. Crawford was the primary victim of Cincinnati's offensive damage, surrendering contributions in three of the five biggest win-probability plays on the night. The Reds extended the gap in the seventh when Luke Maile doubled off Crawford for plus 8.1 percent, and TJ Friedl followed with a single off Cam Booser that added another 11.0 percent, effectively closing the door on Boston.

Among individual performers, Candelario finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 11.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Duran led Boston at plus 10.7 percent despite the team's loss. Friedl contributed plus 10.0 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.0 in his decisive seventh-inning role. On the mound, Andrew Abbott led all pitchers at plus 9.9 percent, with Sam Moll adding plus 8.5 percent out of the bullpen to help Cincinnati close out a game the model leaned toward as increasingly certain from the middle innings onward.