Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 2 |
| HOU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the Baltimore Orioles 14-11 on June 21, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in a game that was far more lopsided in process than the final run total suggests. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Houston just a 36% chance of winning, but that figure climbed steadily and finished at 100% as the Astros pulled away with decisive crooked-number innings in the fifth and sixth. Baltimore finished with 18 hits and two errors, while Houston posted 14 hits cleanly, and the Orioles' inability to convert opportunities at critical moments ultimately defined the outcome.
The single biggest swing of the game came in the bottom of the fifth, when Jake Meyers connected on a home run off Grayson Rodriguez that added 35.7% in win probability to Houston's side, the decisive blow in a three-run Astros inning. That hit was preceded by a damaging Baltimore miscue one half-inning earlier, when Jordan Westburg grounded into a double play off Shawn Dubin, costing the Orioles 11.1% in win probability at a moment when they had a chance to extend their lead. Baltimore had built some positive momentum in the third inning on back-to-back singles from Anthony Santander and Adley Rutschman off Jake Bloss, worth 9.5% and 8.8% in win probability respectively, but those gains were ultimately insufficient given what followed.
By individual performance, Jake Meyers led all players with a WPA of plus-40.3% and a RE24 of plus-1.5, anchoring the Houston offensive effort. On the Baltimore side, Anthony Santander posted a WPA of plus-15.5% with a RE24 of plus-2.7, and Adley Rutschman contributed plus-13.3% WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, making them the Orioles' most productive contributors despite the loss. Among pitchers, Jake Bloss led Houston's staff with plus-4.0% WPA, followed by Bryan Abreu at plus-2.4%. The model's estimate reflected a dominant Astros performance once the pivotal middle innings took shape, with Houston's probability rising in near-linear fashion from that Meyers home run onward.