Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins walked off the Seattle Mariners 3-2 in ten innings on June 21, 2024, at loanDepot park, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had assessed as unlikely from the outset, with Miami entering the game at just a 32 percent win probability. Seattle carried a 2-0 lead into the sixth inning before the Marlins erased it entirely off George Kirby, as Bryan De La Cruz connected for a home run worth +13.5 percent in win probability and Josh Bell followed with another home run that added +15.5 percent, knotting the game at two and setting up a tense back half that neither side could break until extras.

Seattle had a chance to retake control in the ninth, but Cal Raleigh grounded into a double play against Tanner Scott, a swing of -18.2 percent in win probability that effectively stalled the Mariners' best late opportunity. The Marlins then needed only one swing in the tenth, when Tim Anderson singled off Austin Voth to plate the winning run, a play that shifted win probability by +35.9 percent and closed the book on Seattle's chances. Ryan Bliss had briefly kept Seattle's hopes alive with a single off Andrew Nardi in the eighth worth +14.0 percent, but the Mariners could not convert.

On the individual side, Tim Anderson led all batters with a +34.9 percent WPA and +1.2 RE24, while Ryan Bliss posted the game's highest RE24 at +2.3 to go with +21.5 percent WPA. Bryan De La Cruz contributed +20.9 percent WPA and +1.7 RE24 off his sixth-inning blast. On the mound, Trevor Rogers led Miami's staff with +21.8 percent WPA, supported by Tanner Scott at +13.5 percent and Ryne Stanek at +10.9 percent, as the Marlins bullpen held firm through the decisive extra frame.