Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles routed the New York Yankees 17-5 at Yankee Stadium on June 20, 2024, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 54 percent home win probability into a complete collapse, finishing at 0 percent. The Orioles piled up 20 hits against a Yankees pitching staff that never found its footing, while Baltimore committed zero errors against New York's two. The outcome was effectively decided before the end of the third inning, as Baltimore scored seven of its 17 runs in the first three frames.

The decisive sequence came in the second inning, where the game's two largest win-probability swings occurred in rapid succession. Jose Trevino's flyout in the bottom half was the single most consequential play of the night, costing New York 12.9 percent in win probability as Baltimore's Cole Irvin worked through a Yankees threat. Austin Hays then delivered a strikeout-aided momentum hold worth plus-12.0 percent in win probability off Michael Tonkin, and Cedric Mullins followed with a home run off Luis Gil that added another 7.1 percent. Anthony Santander contributed a fifth-inning home run off Tim Hill that swung the model an additional 5.4 percent in Baltimore's favor, while Aaron Judge's third-inning shot off Cole Irvin accounted for New York's largest positive swing at plus-5.4 percent, though it proved far too little.

Among individual performers, Cole Irvin led all pitchers with plus-13.2 percent in win probability added, anchoring a Baltimore staff that held New York to six hits. Offensively, Hays paced the Orioles with plus-9.5 percent WPA, while Santander posted the game's best RE24 at plus-3.0, reflecting his damage in high-leverage run-scoring situations. Mullins rounded out the top three at plus-6.6 percent WPA. The DiamondIQ model leans toward recognizing this as a thorough team effort from Baltimore, built on pitching efficiency and a lineup that relentlessly extended innings across nine frames.