San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals held off the San Francisco Giants 6-5 on June 20, 2024, at Rickwood Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win beginning at 57% before the first pitch and reaching 100% by the final out. The Cardinals jumped in front with three runs in the bottom of the first inning, but San Francisco answered with a three-run third that included the game's single largest win-probability swing: a Heliot Ramos home run off Andre Pallante that shifted the Giants' chances by plus 24.7 percentage points. St. Louis reclaimed the lead with two runs in the bottom of the third to make it 5-3, then added an insurance run in the fifth to push ahead 6-3. The Giants trimmed it to 6-5 with two runs in the sixth, but a Nick Ahmed ground into a double play in the fourth, which cost San Francisco 10.3 percentage points of win probability, had already blunted an earlier threat and proved symptomatic of the club's inability to generate consistent damage against Cardinals pitching.
Ryan Helsley locked down the Cardinals' one-run advantage in the ninth, finishing as the top pitcher by WPA at plus 15.2 percentage points, and he did it by retiring the Giants when it mattered most. Matt Chapman's strikeout to open the ninth cost San Francisco 10.9 percentage points, the single most damaging at-bat of the inning, while Brett Wisely's flyout removed another 10.1 percentage points from the Giants' window. A Trenton Brooks walk briefly extended the threat and added 10.6 percentage points to San Francisco's side, making him the second-highest batter by WPA in the game, but the Cardinals closer did not allow the situation to escalate. Adam Kloffenstein contributed plus 10.8 percentage points on the pitching side, supporting the Cardinals' middle innings and keeping the Giants' two-run sixth from becoming a more damaging rally.
On the offensive side for St. Louis, Brendan Donovan led all batters with plus 13.0 WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.0, the strongest combined contribution at the plate. Patrick Bailey was the Giants' most productive hitter by WPA at plus 10.5 percentage points, though San Francisco's 11 hits ultimately could not overcome the Cardinals' 6-3 advantage built through three innings. The DiamondIQ model favors performances anchored in early run-scoring and high-leverage bullpen execution, and this game delivered both in Cardinals colors.