Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-3 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 20, 2024, handing Chicago a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly inevitable, ultimately placing the White Sox's final win probability at 0%. The Astros entered the game as significant underdogs, with the model giving Houston only a 32% pre-game win probability, but a pair of pivotal innings erased whatever home-field hope Chicago carried. The White Sox struck first with three runs in the bottom of the fifth, headlined by a Luis Robert Jr. double off Spencer Arrighetti that shifted win probability by 13.6 percentage points and an Andrew Vaughn single that added another 12.9 points, briefly tilting the game firmly toward the home side.

Houston responded with a decisive four-run seventh inning that swung the contest for good. A fielding error on Cooper Hummel off Tanner Banks represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 14.5 percentage points, and a Jeremy Peña walk against Justin Anderson added another 11.9 points as the Astros batted around and took a lead they would not relinquish. Chicago finished with two errors on the night, miscues that proved costly against an Astros offense that collected 11 hits without committing one of their own.

Among the standout performers, Vaughn led all batters with a plus 20.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, providing the offensive engine behind Chicago's brief lead, while Hummel finished at plus 13.5% WPA despite his error being the play that most damaged his team's chances. On the pitching side, Chris Flexen was the most impactful arm of the night, posting a plus 30.4% WPA, with Ryan Pressly adding plus 13.3% in support. Josh Hader closed out the game in the ninth, where a Tommy Pham lineout registered as the final significant win-probability moment at plus 14.4 percentage points, ending Chicago's last realistic threat.