Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Cincinnati Reds 1-0 at PNC Park on June 19, 2024, in a tightly contested pitchers' duel that remained scoreless until Bryan Reynolds broke through with a solo home run in the bottom of the eighth inning off Nick Martinez. That swing carried a win-probability added of plus-23.3 percentage points, instantly shifting what had been a competitive late-game situation into a decisive Pittsburgh lead. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Pittsburgh entering the game as a 55 percent favorite, and that figure climbed to 100 percent by the final out, with nearly the entire movement compressed into the last two innings.

The Reds managed just two hits on the evening and were unable to generate any sustained offensive threat against Pittsburgh's pitching staff. Cincinnati's best opportunities faded quietly, most notably in the top eighth when Jonathan India grounded out against Colin Holderman, a play that carried a win-probability swing of minus-7.2 percentage points for the Reds. In the ninth, Elly De La Cruz's pop out against David Bednar, worth minus-7.1 percentage points, closed the door on any remaining Cincinnati hope. On the Pittsburgh side, Oneil Cruz's strikeout in the bottom of the eighth against Sam Moll added 7.8 percentage points to the Pirates' win probability by preserving the lead with an out recorded.

Hunter Greene led all pitchers by WPA at plus-28.7 percentage points, followed closely by Mitch Keller at plus-28.3, reflecting how dominant both starters were through the bulk of the contest. Colin Holderman added plus-17.2 percentage points out of the bullpen. Reynolds finished as the game's most impactful position player with a WPA of plus-20.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.0, his eighth-inning home run serving as the lone run in a game where Pittsburgh's pitching staff surrendered almost nothing across nine innings.