Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| NYY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles edged the New York Yankees 7-6 in ten innings at Yankee Stadium on June 19, 2024, overcoming a late New York rally to claim a road victory that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimated win probability from 56 percent in favor of the home team before first pitch all the way to zero percent by the final out. Baltimore built a three-run cushion in the fifth and added another in the seventh, but the Yankees mounted a serious threat in the bottom of the ninth when Giancarlo Stanton singled off Craig Kimbrel in the game's single largest win-probability swing, a plus-35.6 percent move that kept New York alive and tied the contest heading to extras.
The tenth inning proved decisive and swung decisively in Baltimore's favor. Cedric Mullins led off with a single against Clay Holmes worth plus-33.7 percent in win probability, and Ramón Urías followed with a double off Holmes adding another plus-25.6 percent, the two hits delivering what became the two-run margin. When Jahmai Jones struck out against Dillon Tate to end the bottom half, the game was over, that final punchout registering plus-27.0 percent for Baltimore. Stanton finished as the game's most impactful bat despite being on the losing side, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-61.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-3.2, including his seventh-inning home run off Yennier Cano that had temporarily lifted New York's chances by plus-29.7 percent.
On the Baltimore side, Urías accumulated plus-39.9 percent WPA and plus-2.6 RE24, while Mullins contributed plus-32.6 percent WPA to anchor the decisive tenth-inning frame. Among pitchers, Bryan Baker led Baltimore's staff with plus-23.3 percent WPA, followed by Cade Povich at plus-19.1 percent. New York's three errors proved costly in a one-run game, and the DiamondIQ model's lean heading into the night toward the Yankees found no confirmation in the final result, as Baltimore's 11 hits and errorless defense proved just enough to escape the Bronx with a win.