New York Mets at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

The Texas Rangers defeated the New York Mets 3-5 at Globe Life Field on June 19, 2024, in a game that began with the DiamondIQ model's estimate giving the home side a 52 percent win probability and ended with that figure reaching 100 percent. The decisive stretch came in the sixth and seventh innings, when Texas erased a Mets lead and then pulled away for good. Pete Alonso gave New York what appeared to be a foothold in the top of the sixth, his home run off Andrew Heaney swinging win probability 23.5 points in the Mets' favor. But Texas answered immediately in the bottom half, with Josh Smith's double off Sean Manaea shifting the needle 15.1 points toward the Rangers and Wyatt Langford's subsequent single adding another 13.8 points, capping a two-run inning that leveled the game at three.

The knockout blow came in the bottom of the seventh when Leody Taveras connected for a home run off Drew Smith, a swing that produced the single largest win-probability movement of the night at plus 30.0 points and gave Texas a lead it would not relinquish. Taveras finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 30.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Langford posted identical WPA figures to Alonso at plus 15.5 percent but led among position players with a RE24 of plus 2.2. Starling Marte's double off Heaney in the top of the fourth, worth 11.7 points of win probability, gave New York an early edge that ultimately proved insufficient. On the pitching side, José Ureña was the most impactful arm of the night at plus 16.4 percent WPA, with Kirby Yates and Sean Manaea contributing plus 6.3 and plus 3.1 respectively as Texas closed out the three-run victory.