San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | 6 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Francisco Giants 6-5 at Wrigley Field on June 19, 2024, in a game that shifted dramatically across the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54% pre-game home win probability for Chicago, and that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100% by the final out. The Cubs built their lead in stages, with Ian Happ's home run off Spencer Bivens in the bottom of the fourth generating an 11.4% win-probability swing and giving Chicago an early cushion. The Giants answered with a four-run eighth inning capped by Jorge Soler's home run off Tyson Miller, a swing that added 20.4% win probability and briefly made the game competitive again.
The Cubs' defense against that late rally proved decisive. Colten Brewer retired the Giants in the top of the ninth, with Patrick Bailey's groundout representing a 16.6% win-probability swing against San Francisco and effectively closing the door. Brewer finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-15.2%, while Kyle Hendricks contributed plus-12.7% and Drew Smyly added plus-10.1%, reflecting a collective bullpen effort that preserved the one-run outcome. Earlier, Cody Bellinger's grounded into double play in the bottom of the third had cost Chicago 14.9% in win probability off Spencer Bivens, a missed opportunity the Cubs eventually overcame through Dansby Swanson's single in the seventh off Spencer Howard, which added 11.2%.
On the offensive side, Dansby Swanson led all batters with a plus-16.6% WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, while Brett Wisely contributed plus-15.7% WPA and plus-0.9 RE24 despite the Giants falling short. Jorge Soler posted the highest RE24 among the top performers at plus-2.7 alongside his plus-12.8% WPA, though his eighth-inning burst came too late to change the result. San Francisco's three errors proved costly in a game decided by a single run, as Chicago's clean defensive performance, reflected in zero errors on 11 hits allowed, underscored the margin between the two clubs on the afternoon.