MLB Recap · June 19, 2024

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

HOU4
Final
CWS1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
HOU0011010104120
CWS000100000180

The Story

The Houston Astros defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-1 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 19, 2024, collecting 12 hits while Chicago managed 8. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the White Sox a 33% chance of winning before first pitch, a number that fell to zero by the final out as Houston controlled the game with steady offensive production and strong pitching contributions.

The decisive swings in win probability came in the middle innings. In the top of the third, Chas McCormick's double off Garrett Crochet moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 10.4%, though Cooper Hummel's fielder's choice out immediately gave back 10.1% of that ground. Houston extended its lead in the fourth when César Salazar singled off Crochet, a play that shifted win probability by plus 13.0% and proved to be the single largest positive swing of the game for either side. Chicago's best moment came in the bottom of the fourth when Andrew Benintendi launched a home run off Hunter Brown, moving White Sox win probability by plus 11.3%, but a Gavin Sheets double play in the fifth, also off Brown, erased that momentum with a minus 13.0% swing that effectively closed the door on a Chicago comeback.

Salazar finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus 23.5% WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.0 to lead all batters. Benintendi followed at plus 9.5% WPA and Korey Lee added plus 8.6%. On the mound, Hunter Brown led Houston's staff with a plus 11.1% WPA despite surrendering the Benintendi home run, with Bryan Abreu contributing plus 8.8% and Ryan Pressly adding plus 5.2% as the bullpen secured the final outs.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025HOU bats firstFinalCWS win %HOU win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 33.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

César Salazar Single
Top 4th · off Garrett Crochet
+13.0%
Gavin Sheets Grounded Into DP
Bot 5th · off Hunter Brown
-13.0%
Andrew Benintendi Home Run
Bot 4th · off Hunter Brown
+11.3%
Chas McCormick Double
Top 3rd · off Garrett Crochet
+10.4%
Cooper Hummel Fielders Choice Out
Top 3rd · off Garrett Crochet
-10.1%

Top Batters by WPA

César Salazar+23.5%+2.0 RE24
Andrew Benintendi+9.5%+0.3 RE24
Korey Lee+8.6%+0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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