Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 at PNC Park on June 18, 2024, finishing off a tight road win despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 54 percent home win probability for Pittsburgh. The Reds broke a scoreless game in the fifth inning when Santiago Espinal hit a home run off Bailey Falter, a swing that shifted win probability 19.3 percent in Cincinnati's favor and proved to be the decisive blow of the afternoon. Pittsburgh answered in the seventh when Ke'Bryan Hayes connected on a home run off Nick Lodolo, a 15.6 percent win-probability swing that pulled the Pirates within one and kept the game alive entering the final frames.

The late innings produced the most dramatic probability movement of the contest. In the eighth, Bryan Reynolds grounded into a double play off Fernando Cruz that collapsed Pittsburgh's win expectancy by 24.2 percent, a pivotal sequence that essentially handed the Reds control of the game. Pittsburgh mounted one final push in the ninth against Alexis Díaz, and Hayes reached base on a groundout that technically added 31.6 percent win probability to the Pirates' ledger as the at-bat extended the inning, but Jack Suwinski's strikeout to end the game erased 8.5 percent in a single pitch and closed the door entirely.

Hayes finished as the game's most impactful player by WPA at plus 43.7 percent despite being on the losing side, a reflection of how deeply his solo home run and ninth-inning sequence moved the probability needle. Espinal contributed plus 13.7 percent WPA alongside a plus 0.9 RE24, making him Cincinnati's most productive offensive presence. On the mound, Lodolo led Reds pitchers with plus 25.6 percent WPA and Cruz added plus 23.3 percent, the two combining to protect the one-run lead through the middle and late innings and deliver Cincinnati the final 2-1 margin.