Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 4-2 on June 18, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 57% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by game's end. Baltimore held the Yankees scoreless in the first inning before New York began to pull away with a run in the second, two more in the third, and another in the fifth. The Orioles managed their only offense in the top of the ninth, but the damage had long since been done against starter Albert Suárez, who absorbed the bulk of New York's early scoring.

The decisive stretch came in the second and third innings, where a sequence of plays off Suárez swung the game firmly in New York's favor. Anthony Volpe's single in the bottom of the second added 6.4% to the Yankees' win probability, and Austin Wells followed with a double worth 6.0%. Giancarlo Stanton then contributed a single in the third worth 5.8%, and Alex Verdugo tacked on another single at plus 5.0%, each hit compounding Baltimore's deficit against a lineup working efficiently through the Orioles' right-hander.

On the pitching side, Nestor Cortes was the game's most impactful performer by a considerable margin, posting a win-probability contribution of plus 19.5% for the Yankees. Michael Tonkin added 2.9% and Luke Weaver contributed 1.9%, as the New York bullpen held Baltimore in check until the final frame. Among position players, Wells led the way at plus 5.9% WPA and plus 0.5 RE24, followed by Verdugo at plus 5.4% and Volpe at plus 4.5%, making the early-inning offensive surge against Suárez the definitive turning point of the contest.