New York Mets at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets escaped Globe Life Field with a 7-6 victory over the Texas Rangers on June 18, 2024, a game the DiamondIQ model opened with a 51 percent home win probability that ultimately closed at zero. The Mets trailed through much of the contest before breaking through in the eighth inning, when Francisco Alvarez delivered a double off David Robertson that added 28.6 percent to New York's win probability and produced the kind of run-environment swing reflected in his game-high RE24 of plus-2.2. The Mets added another run in the ninth, with Pete Alonso doubling off Kirby Yates in a play that shifted win probability by 30.7 percent, pushing New York's lead to the margin that would hold. Alonso finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-34.5 percent, just ahead of Alvarez at plus-34.2 percent.

Texas had its moments, particularly a five-run fifth inning that briefly swung the game's complexion. Josh Smith's home run off Luis Severino in that frame added 24.0 percent to the Rangers' win probability and represented the high-water mark of their comeback effort. The ninth inning produced the game's two most consequential plays in sequence: a Leody Taveras flyout off Edwin Díaz that added 31.6 percent to Texas's probability, briefly tightening the drama, before Ezequiel Duran grounded into a double play off Díaz that erased 27.2 percent of the Rangers' remaining chances and effectively closed the door. Among pitchers, Reed Garrett led all arms with a WPA of plus-10.9 percent, anchoring a Mets bullpen effort that held Texas scoreless over the final frames despite the late tension.