San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-2 at Wrigley Field on June 18, 2024, handing the Giants a loss in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moved from 53 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by the final out. Chicago collected 11 hits against San Francisco's 4, and neither team committed an error in a clean but decisive contest. The Cubs built their lead in two separate bursts, scoring twice in the second inning and adding three more in the eighth to put the game away.

The pivotal moments were concentrated in a handful of swings. Dansby Swanson's second-inning home run off Logan Webb represented the game's second-largest single play by win probability, shifting the outlook by plus-12.7 percent in Chicago's favor. San Francisco briefly threatened in the top of the fifth when Curt Casali laced a double off Justin Steele, generating the game's largest individual swing at plus-15.1 percent for the Giants. However, Seiya Suzuki's flyout in the bottom of the fifth answered immediately, a minus-9.1 percent swing that extinguished any momentum San Francisco had generated. The Cubs then closed the door in the eighth, with Michael Busch doubling off Tyler Rogers for a plus-10.7 percent swing followed by Suzuki's run-scoring single adding another plus-10.6 percent.

Among position players, Curt Casali led all batters with a plus-13.9 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 despite playing for the losing side, while Cody Bellinger paced Chicago's offense at plus-13.4 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. On the mound, Logan Webb led all pitchers with a plus-14.6 percent WPA for San Francisco, a notable mark given the Giants lost, underscoring how the bullpen's struggles in the eighth ultimately decided the outcome. Tyson Miller contributed plus-14.5 percent WPA in relief for Chicago, and Justin Steele added plus-8.4 percent as the DiamondIQ model's estimate settled firmly in the Cubs' favor through the late innings.