MLB Recap · June 18, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

LAD11
Final
COL9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD0110011071190
COL4201011009110

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers rallied past the Colorado Rockies 11-9 at Coors Field on June 18, 2024, completing a dramatic comeback that hinged almost entirely on a single swing in the ninth inning. The Rockies entered the day with just a 28% chance of winning according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and Colorado briefly appeared poised to make that number count, staking out a four-run lead in the bottom of the first and adding two more in the second. The Dodgers chipped away across the middle innings but still trailed heading into the ninth, when Teoscar Hernández delivered the decisive blow against Victor Vodnik — a home run that swung win probability by 77.8 percentage points and served as the centerpiece of a seven-run Dodger ninth that put the game out of reach at 11-9.

On the Colorado side, Hunter Goodman and Ryan McMahon were the most impactful performers by the DiamondIQ model's WPA measure, though neither could sustain the Rockies' early advantage. Goodman finished with a WPA of plus-27.1%, driven largely by outs made against the Dodgers rather than offensive production, as his minus-0.6 RE24 reflects limited run creation. McMahon posted a plus-12.8% WPA and a plus-0.4 RE24, with his second-inning lineout adding 15.3 percentage points to Colorado's win probability by stranding Dodger threats. Starter Austin Gomber was Colorado's most effective pitcher by WPA at plus-20.6%, controlling the Dodger lineup through his portion of the game, but the bullpen could not hold the lead when it mattered most.

Teoscar Hernández was the clear standout of the contest, finishing with a plus-75.0% WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, numbers that quantify just how singularly his ninth-inning home run reshaped the outcome. Evan Phillips closed out Colorado in the bottom of the ninth, getting Goodman on a strikeout that added 12.0 percentage points to the Dodgers' win probability and sealed the victory. Los Angeles's error-free defense and the late-inning offensive eruption left Colorado's win probability at exactly 0% at the final out, a complete collapse of what had been a commanding early position.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalCOL win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 27.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Teoscar Hernández Home Run
Top 9th · off Victor Vodnik
+77.8%
Ryan McMahon Lineout
Bot 2nd · off Walker Buehler
+15.3%
Hunter Goodman Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Walker Buehler
+14.0%
Enrique Hernández Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Austin Gomber
-13.9%
Hunter Goodman Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Evan Phillips
+12.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Teoscar Hernández+75.0%+1.7 RE24
Hunter Goodman+27.1%-0.6 RE24
Ryan McMahon+12.8%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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