Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| PIT | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Cincinnati Reds a 4-1 defeat at PNC Park on June 17, 2024, with the game's outcome largely settled in the opening two innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Pittsburgh a 55% win probability, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%, a reflection of how thoroughly the Pirates controlled the contest. Pittsburgh struck first and most consequentially in the bottom of the first, plating three runs, then added another in the second to build a 4-1 lead that Cincinnati never seriously threatened.
The decisive moments were defined as much by what Cincinnati failed to do as by what Pittsburgh accomplished. In the top of the seventh, Jonathan India's strikeout against Aroldis Chapman carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game, costing the Reds 9.0 percentage points and effectively closing the door on any late rally. Earlier, Jeimer Candelario's lineout against Paul Skenes in the sixth had been nearly as damaging at minus-8.5 percentage points, and Will Benson's pop out in the second off Skenes cost Cincinnati another 5.7 points. On the Pittsburgh side, Bryan Reynolds delivered a double in the second inning off Carson Spiers worth plus-4.9 percentage points, while Oneil Cruz's strikeout in the same frame, ending a threat, added 5.4 points to Pittsburgh's ledger.
Paul Skenes was the story of the night on the mound, generating plus-23.2 percentage points of win probability — by far the top individual contribution in either direction. Aroldis Chapman and Colin Holderman added plus-5.0 and plus-4.5 points respectively in relief support. Among position players, Elly De La Cruz led all batters with plus-11.3 percentage points and a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Reynolds posted the best run-environment figure at plus-1.9 to go with his plus-6.9 WPA. Oneil Cruz contributed plus-6.2 percentage points as Pittsburgh's offense did just enough early to let its pitching staff handle the rest.