San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants handed the Chicago Cubs a 7-6 defeat at Wrigley Field on June 17, 2024, completing a dramatic late-game reversal that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs victory dropping from 51 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. The game was largely quiet through the first five innings before Chicago seized control in the sixth and seventh, but San Francisco ultimately authored the decisive swings when it mattered most.

The Cubs appeared to have built a commanding position heading into the ninth, powered by Michael Busch's sixth-inning home run off Randy Rodriguez, which shifted win probability 28.7 points in Chicago's favor, and Ian Happ's seventh-inning home run off Erik Miller, worth 36.0 points. Seiya Suzuki added to the pressure with a two-run double off Miller in that same frame, pushing the Cubs' advantage to what looked like a cushion entering the final innings. Chicago held a 6-4 lead going to the ninth, with closer Hector Neris on the mound.

That is when Thairo Estrada ended the game with a single swing. His three-run home run off Neris in the top of the ninth carried a win-probability swing of plus 68.3 percent, the largest single play of the contest, and it erased the deficit entirely. Estrada finished as the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 85.0 percent and a RE24 of plus 3.8. Camilo Doval closed the door in the bottom of the ninth, inducing a flyout from Cody Bellinger that represented a 31.6 percent swing back toward Chicago but ultimately went for naught. Jordan Hicks was the top-performing Giants pitcher by WPA at plus 23.6 percent.