Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks routed the Chicago White Sox 12-5 at Chase Field on June 16, 2024, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which opened with Arizona holding a 76 percent pre-game win probability and closed at 100 percent as the game ended. The outcome was largely decided in two early innings, as Arizona plated three runs in the first and then erupted for six in the fourth to put the game well beyond reach. Chicago managed a three-run ninth that served only to trim the final margin, having trailed by double digits entering the frame.

The decisive swing in win probability came from a collection of plays centered on the game's first four innings. Christian Walker was the most impactful bat on the night, contributing a single off Drew Thorpe in the third inning worth 4.4 percent in win probability and a double off Chad Kuhl in the fourth worth an additional 4.5 percent, combining for a game-high plus-10.9 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24. The White Sox generated their lone significant probability swings in the third inning, where Danny Mendick's single off Jordan Montgomery added 5.5 percent and Tommy Pham's walk added 4.2 percent, though those plays proved insufficient against the run differential Arizona had already established.

Beyond Walker, Joc Pederson finished with plus-6.1 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Pham led Chicago's contributors at plus-4.2 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24 despite the loss. Arizona's pitching staff was managed in large part by late relievers Paul Sewald, Joe Mantiply, and Jared Shuster, each of whom finished with neutral WPA figures, reflecting clean innings in a game that had already been decided. Chicago finished with 11 hits but the error and the lopsided fourth inning defined the contest.