Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | - | 5 | 8 | 3 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers held off the Cincinnati Reds 5-4 on June 16, 2024, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 65% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Cincinnati scratched out runs in the first, third, and fourth innings to carry a 3-0 lead into the middle frames, but Milwaukee responded with a single run in the fifth before Willy Adames blew the game open in the bottom of the sixth. His home run off Lucas Sims registered the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 28.3%, erasing the deficit and giving the Brewers a lead they would not relinquish. Adames finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 18.7% with a RE24 of plus 1.4, reflecting the outsized situational value of that one swing.
Cincinnati made things interesting in the eighth when Elly De La Cruz connected for a home run off Jared Koenig, a plus 14.7% win-probability play that pulled the Reds within one and kept the DiamondIQ model's estimate from sealing the contest entirely. De La Cruz finished second among batters with a plus 16.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.7, making him Cincinnati's most impactful offensive player despite the loss. Jeimer Candelario also contributed meaningfully on the night, posting a plus 14.8% WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 to round out the top three position players by that measure.
The ninth inning told the story of how close Cincinnati came without quite getting there. A Stuart Fairchild fielding error off Trevor Megill opened the door with a plus 13.7% win-probability shift for the Reds, but the rally stalled when Santiago Espinal's single generated a minus 13.5% swing and TJ Friedl's flyout cost another minus 10.9%, swinging momentum decisively back to Milwaukee. Megill closed it out and led all pitchers with a plus 15.2% WPA, while Joel Payamps added plus 10.8% and Frankie Montas contributed plus 10.1% in what became a three-errors night for the Brewers that made the final score feel tighter than their command of the game suggested.