MLB Recap · June 16, 2024

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

TEX0
Final
SEA5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000000000020
SEA00011012-560

The Story

The Seattle Mariners shut out the Texas Rangers 5-0 on June 16, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming from the outset, with Seattle entering at a 65% pre-game win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. Texas managed just two hits on the night and never seriously threatened, leaving the Mariners in control from start to finish.

The decisive stretch came in the middle innings against Rangers starter Dane Dunning. Luke Raley's double in the bottom of the fourth shifted win probability by 9.5 percentage points in Seattle's favor, opening the scoring and setting the tone. The very next frame, a Julio Rodríguez walk added another 10.1 percentage points, representing the single largest win-probability swing of the game and effectively extinguishing any realistic path back for Texas. Tyler Locklear then capped the offense with a home run off José Leclerc in the seventh, a swing worth 7.4 percentage points that pushed the margin to a commanding level.

Logan Gilbert was the most dominant individual performer on the night by a wide margin, generating 32.9 percentage points of win probability added for Seattle, anchoring the shutout and rendering the Rangers' two-hit output almost inconsequential. Among the position players, Rodríguez finished as the top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus 8.0 and an RE24 of plus 0.6, while Raley matched that RE24 figure with a WPA of plus 6.5. Dominic Canzone also contributed a positive RE24 of plus 0.5. The DiamondIQ model leaned heavily toward Seattle heading in, and Gilbert along with the Mariners' lineup made that projection look conservative.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalSEA win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 65.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 5th · off Dane Dunning
+10.1%
Luke Raley Double
Bot 4th · off Dane Dunning
+9.5%
Tyler Locklear Home Run
Bot 7th · off José Leclerc
+7.4%
Mitch Haniger Flyout
Bot 1st · off Dane Dunning
-4.8%
Tyler Locklear Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Dane Dunning
-4.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Julio Rodríguez+8.0%+0.6 RE24
Luke Raley+6.5%+0.6 RE24
Dominic Canzone+1.2%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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