Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 7-2 defeat at Dodger Stadium on June 15, 2024, erasing a pregame home-win probability of 57 percent according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate and running it all the way to zero by the final out. Kansas City was held scoreless through three innings but broke through in the fourth, when Freddy Fermin delivered a double off Michael Grove that carried a win-probability swing of plus-9.2 percent and ultimately contributed to Fermin finishing as the second-most impactful bat in the game by WPA at plus-16.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.4. The Dodgers answered with two runs of their own in the bottom half, with Gavin Lux's single off Seth Lugo adding plus-16.2 percent to the home side's win probability, keeping the game within reach heading into the middle innings.
The decisive blow came in the top of the sixth, when MJ Melendez turned the contest with a home run off Blake Treinen that swung win probability by plus-42.8 percent in Kansas City's favor. That swing was the largest single-play shift of the night, and it headlined what became a four-run Royals frame. Melendez finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-39.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.9. Adam Frazier's strikeout against Treinen in the same inning represented a missed opportunity for Los Angeles, costing the Dodgers 10.2 percent in win probability, while Cavan Biggio's strikeout against Lugo in the fourth, at minus-8.7 percent, further illustrated how Kansas City's pitching staff repeatedly defused Dodger threats.
Kansas City added two more runs in the seventh to seal the final margin. On the mound, Seth Lugo and Yohan Ramirez were the most valuable Royals arms by WPA at plus-5.9 and plus-6.4 percent respectively, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto contributed plus-1.5 percent for Los Angeles in a losing effort. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a complete reversal of fortune from the pregame outlook, as the Royals controlled the game decisively from the sixth inning onward.