Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies routed the Pittsburgh Pirates 16-4 at Coors Field on June 15, 2024, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 42 percent home win probability into a near-certainty well before the final out. Colorado seized control through the middle innings, building its advantage incrementally before an explosive eighth inning that put the game entirely out of reach.

The decisive sequence began in the third inning, when Hunter Goodman connected on a home run off Jared Jones, a swing that shifted win probability 10.6 percent in Colorado's favor. Pittsburgh briefly answered in the top of the fourth when Nick Gonzales hit a home run off Ty Blach, a plus-11.4 percent WPA play that briefly kept the Pirates within reach, but the Rockies responded immediately in the bottom half. Jake Cave's double off Jones in the fourth represented the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus-19.1 percent, and Goodman added a second extra-base hit in that same frame, a double that pushed Colorado's advantage another 8.9 percent. Andrew McCutchen's double play in the top of the third, which cost Pittsburgh 7.2 percent in win probability, proved emblematic of how the Pirates repeatedly failed to generate momentum against Blach.

Goodman finished as the game's most impactful hitter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus-21.5 percent WPA and a plus-4.3 RE24, followed closely by Cave at plus-20.1 percent WPA and plus-2.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Ty Blach led all pitchers with a plus-8.2 percent WPA contribution for Colorado. The Pirates managed ten hits but could not convert them consistently, and their lone error compounded a difficult afternoon in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by the game's conclusion.