San Diego Padres at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the San Diego Padres 5-1 on June 15, 2024, at Citi Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets victory climbing from a dead-even 50 percent pre-game probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. New York's offense did its most decisive damage in the bottom of the fourth inning, where J.D. Martinez delivered a home run off Jhony Brito that swung win probability by 19.8 percent, the single largest play of the game. Brandon Nimmo followed later in that same frame with a double off Adam Mazur that added another 9.5 percent, and the Mets carried a 3-0 lead into the fifth.

San Diego briefly cut into the deficit when Jackson Merrill hit a solo home run off Jose Quintana in the top of the fifth, a swing worth 8.7 percent in the Padres' favor that represented their most meaningful moment of the night. However, the Padres' rally was essentially extinguished in the top of the sixth when Jurickson Profar grounded into a double play off Quintana, costing San Diego 7.0 percent in win probability at a moment when they still trailed by two. Martinez then put the game firmly out of reach with a second home run in the bottom of the seventh, this one off Enyel De Los Santos, adding another 7.4 percent to the Mets' ledger. The Padres finished with just two hits on the night.

Martinez was the clear standout performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-31.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.7, far and away the most impactful bat in the game. On the mound, Jose Quintana led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-18.9 percent, navigating the Padres' lineup efficiently despite surrendering Merrill's home run. Dedniel Nunez contributed plus-11.7 percent out of the bullpen, helping the Mets complete a thoroughly dominant performance that left the DiamondIQ model with nothing left to calculate.