St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the Chicago Cubs 3-0 at Wrigley Field on June 14, 2024, with all three runs arriving in the final two innings to erase what had been a scoreless deadlock through seven frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Chicago a 51% win probability, but by the final out that figure had dropped to 0%, with the decisive shift occurring in the top of the eighth inning when Pedro Pagés connected on a home run off Hayden Wesneski, a swing that moved win probability by 18.7 percentage points in St. Louis's favor. The Cubs mounted a brief response in the bottom half, as Michael Busch singled off Ryan Fernandez to generate an 8.6-point swing toward Chicago, but Miguel Amaya's fielder's choice out and Patrick Wisdom's flyout off JoJo Romero combined to extinguish the threat, costing the Cubs 17.1 and 16.5 percentage points respectively. Iván Herrera added a double off Colten Brewer in the top of the ninth that pushed the Cardinals' cushion to three runs and registered a 6.5-point win-probability gain.

On the individual ledger, Pagés finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-12.6 and an RE24 of plus-0.3, while Herrera followed at plus-7.1 WPA and plus-0.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Kyle Gibson led all players in win-probability contribution at plus-37.8, a figure that reflects how thoroughly he neutralized Chicago's lineup over his portion of the game. Kyle Hendricks checked in at plus-26.5 WPA for the Cubs despite the loss, suggesting he kept St. Louis in check for much of the contest, while JoJo Romero added plus-16.5 WPA in relief by stranding the threat in the eighth. The Cardinals held the Cubs to just three hits on the evening, and St. Louis's nine hits were concentrated at precisely the moments that mattered most.