MLB Recap · June 14, 2024

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

OAK5
Final
MIN6

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
OAK4000001000551
MIN01000301016101

The Story

The Minnesota Twins walked off the Oakland Athletics 6-5 in ten innings on June 14, 2024, at Target Field, completing a comeback from a 4-0 first-inning deficit. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Minnesota a 71 percent win probability, and by the final out that figure had risen to 100 percent.

Max Kepler was the defining force of the game, accounting for a combined +71.5 percent in win probability added across his two biggest moments. His sixth-inning home run off Mitch Spence was the single most consequential play of the night, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate by +34.6 percent as it capped a three-run inning that brought Minnesota within one. Then in the bottom of the tenth, Kepler delivered the walk-off single off Scott Alexander, adding another +28.4 percent swing to his ledger and finishing with a +4.4 RE24. Oakland had its own pivotal moment in the seventh, when Brent Rooker tripled off Griffin Jax for a +22.0 percent swing to push the Athletics back in front, and he finished the night at +15.9 percent WPA. The Athletics also had a chance in the ninth, but a JJ Bleday double play off Jhoan Duran deflated that rally by -18.2 percent.

On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran's double-play induction was critical in preserving the Twins' leverage, and he finished at +9.5 percent WPA alongside fellow reliever Dany Jiménez, who led Minnesota's pitching staff at +9.7 percent. Carlos Santana drew a walk off Mason Miller in the eighth that added +15.5 percent to Minnesota's win probability, setting the table for the Twins' eventual winning run. Jose F. Miranda also contributed +12.8 percent WPA, making this a collective offensive effort that erased what had been a four-run early hole.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025OAK bats firstFinalMIN win %OAK win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 71.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Max Kepler Home Run
Bot 6th · off Mitch Spence
+34.6%
Max Kepler Single
Bot 10th · off Scott Alexander
+28.4%
Brent Rooker Triple
Top 7th · off Griffin Jax
+22.0%
JJ Bleday Double Play
Top 9th · off Jhoan Duran
-18.2%
Bot 8th · off Mason Miller
+15.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Max Kepler+71.5%+4.4 RE24
Brent Rooker+15.9%+0.3 RE24
Jose F Miranda+12.8%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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