Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Seattle Mariners 3-2 in ten innings on June 13, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, completing a comeback that defied the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of an 81 percent probability of a Mariners win. Chicago scored twice in the third inning and held that lead until the ninth, when Julio Rodríguez launched a home run off Michael Kopech that shifted win probability by 47.1 points in Seattle's favor and sent the game to extras. That single swing was the largest win-probability event of the night and represented the most dramatic moment in what had otherwise been a tightly controlled pitching performance from both sides, with Seattle managing just three hits across the full contest.

The decisive turn came in the top of the tenth, when Nicky Lopez singled off Andrés Muñoz in a play worth 24.7 percentage points of win probability, followed by a Gavin Sheets flyout that added another 17.7 points as Chicago extended its lead to 3-2. In the bottom half, Luke Raley's flyout off Tanner Banks ended the game with a 31.6-point win-probability swing in Chicago's favor as Seattle failed to push across the tying run from the automatic extra-inning runner. Among position players, Rodríguez finished as the top WPA performer at plus-30.2 despite ending up on the losing side, while Andrew Vaughn contributed a plus-21.2 WPA mark and led all batters with a RE24 of plus-1.1. On the mound, Garrett Crochet was the clear standout, posting a plus-43.8 WPA, with John Brebbia adding plus-23.3 as Chicago's pitching staff largely suppressed Seattle's offense before the Rodríguez equalizer forced the extra frame.