Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 at Busch Stadium on June 13, 2024, completing a game that the DiamondIQ model entered favoring the home side at 56% and finished at 100% certainty for St. Louis. The Cardinals built their winning margin across three separate offensive bursts, while Pittsburgh's best threat materialized in the fifth inning before ultimately falling short.

The decisive moments came on opposite sides of the fifth inning. Paul Goldschmidt had opened the scoring in the bottom of the third with a home run off Mitch Keller that shifted win probability 18.3 points in St. Louis's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Pittsburgh responded with a three-run fifth that leaned heavily on a Michael A. Taylor walk off Lance Lynn, which added 13.1 percentage points to Pittsburgh's chances, followed by an Oneil Cruz single off John King that moved the needle another 15.2 points. That rally briefly tilted the game toward the Pirates, but Edward Olivares grounded into a double play in the same inning, costing Pittsburgh 8.5 points of win probability and stalling the momentum. Brendan Donovan then answered in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Keller, a swing worth 13.8 points that effectively reclaimed control for the Cardinals.

Donovan finished as St. Louis's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-12.0 with an RE24 of plus-0.8, while Taylor led all batters in the game at plus-12.8 and plus-1.2 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Cruz posted plus-9.9 WPA for Pittsburgh. Out of the bullpen, Andrew Kittredge was the Cardinals' most valuable arm, adding 15.2 points of win probability in relief, with Ryan Fernandez contributing 10.8 and Matthew Liberatore adding 9.2 as St. Louis preserved the one-run lead through the final frames.