Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 9-3 defeat at Fenway Park on June 13, 2024, a game that was largely decided by the end of the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Boston a 37 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that estimate had climbed to 100 percent, a swing driven by two pivotal half-innings that effectively ended any competitive drama early.

The decisive moments arrived in the second and fourth innings, with Aaron Nola bearing the brunt of the damage. In the bottom of the second, a Dominic Smith single added 8.3 percentage points of win probability for Boston, and Tyler O'Neill's groundout — accounting for 11.9 percentage points — contributed to a four-run frame that gave the Red Sox an early cushion. Philadelphia briefly threatened in the top of the fourth when Kyle Schwarber delivered a double off Tanner Houck that swung win probability 20.4 points in the Phillies' direction, the single largest individual play of the game. Boston answered immediately in the bottom half, however, as O'Neill connected on a home run off Nola worth 19.9 percentage points, erasing any Phillies momentum, while a David Hamilton single added another 7.7 points to cement a four-run fourth for the Red Sox.

O'Neill finished as the game's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a combined WPA of plus-32.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.8, his two consequential plate appearances against Nola proving the turning point of the contest. Schwarber led Philadelphia's contributors with a WPA of plus-19.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-3.2, though his efforts came in a losing cause. Smith rounded out the top performers with a WPA of plus-10.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.4. On the mound, Boston's bullpen was largely untested with Gregory Soto posting the top pitching WPA among relievers at plus-1.3 percent, a reflection of how thoroughly the Red Sox starter and offense controlled the afternoon.