Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets walked off the Miami Marlins 3-2 on June 13, 2024, at Citi Field, completing a low-scoring contest that remained in doubt until the final swing. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Mets a 65 percent chance of winning and closed at 100 percent, a journey that required a dramatic ninth-inning home run to get there. Miami had briefly seized control when Jazz Chisholm Jr. took Drew Smith deep in the top of the seventh to give the Marlins a 2-1 lead, a swing that added 14.5 percent in win probability from Miami's perspective. The Mets answered with a J.D. Martinez double off Anthony Bender in the bottom half, a play worth plus-17.1 percent, to tie the game and set up an extraordinary finish.
With the score knotted at two heading to the bottom of the ninth, Martinez came to the plate against Tanner Scott and ended the game immediately, launching a walk-off home run that swung win probability by plus-79.5 percent in a single moment. That blow accounted for the vast majority of Martinez's final tally of plus-90.9 percent WPA and plus-2.6 RE24, making him the decisive figure of the night by a considerable margin. Miami had chances to extend their lead earlier but squandered them, most notably in the fourth inning when Tim Anderson grounded into a double play off Luis Severino, a sequence that cost the Marlins 16.7 percent in win probability.
Despite the loss, Miami generated eight hits against just three for New York, yet could not convert that advantage into runs against a Mets pitching staff that held firm. Roddery Muñoz led all pitchers with plus-37.4 percent WPA, followed by Calvin Faucher at plus-30.6 percent, two performances that kept the Mets within reach long enough for Martinez to deliver. Jake Burger contributed plus-13.6 percent WPA for New York, while Chisholm's homer gave him plus-12.5 percent on the night despite finishing on the losing side. The DiamondIQ model favors the Mets to have won this game going in, and the outcome ultimately arrived through one decisive swing rather than sustained offensive production.