Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Colorado Rockies 17-9 on June 12, 2024, at Target Field in a high-scoring affair that the DiamondIQ model had anticipated from the outset, assigning Minnesota a 71% pre-game win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. The Twins jumped out early, plating five runs in the first inning, and though Colorado made periodic pushes, Minnesota's offense proved too deep and consistent to overcome. The Rockies finished with 12 hits and committed one error, while the Twins collected 24 hits and scored in six of nine innings, including a decisive seven-run eighth that effectively closed the book on any Colorado comeback.

The game's most consequential single moment, by win-probability impact, came in the top of the eighth when Elehuris Montero drew a walk off Jhoan Duran that swung win probability 13.3 percentage points in Colorado's favor — the largest single-play shift of the night, arriving at a moment when the Rockies were still technically alive. However, Adael Amador immediately followed with a grounded into double play against Duran that swung 6.8 points back toward Minnesota, effectively neutralizing the threat. Earlier, Ryan McMahon's fourth-inning home run off Pablo López had added 6.9 points for Colorado, while Willi Castro countered with a home run off Austin Gomber in the bottom half worth 5.8 points for the Twins.

Among individual performers tracked by the DiamondIQ model, Jacob Stallings led all players with a WPA of plus-9.7 and an RE24 of plus-1.5, benefiting in part from a key strikeout situation in the first inning that added 6.4 points to Colorado's win probability. Elehuris Montero finished second at plus-9.2 WPA, while Willi Castro paced Minnesota's position players at plus-8.7 WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. On the mound, Pablo López led Twins pitchers with a WPA of plus-2.1, the only starter or reliever on either side to register a meaningful positive contribution by that measure.