Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2 at Busch Stadium on June 12, 2024, building an early lead and holding it comfortably through nine innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 55% home win probability for St. Louis, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Cardinals controlled the contest. St. Louis scattered its 11 hits across a game that was largely decided in the middle innings, while Pittsburgh managed only 6 hits and never truly threatened to overturn the deficit.

The Cardinals began separating themselves in the third inning, when Nolan Arenado doubled off Bailey Falter for the game's single largest win-probability swing, adding 12.0% in St. Louis's favor. Dylan Carlson extended the advantage the following inning with a single off Falter that carried an 8.7% swing, continuing Pittsburgh's struggles against the Cardinals bats. Pittsburgh responded in the fifth when Michael A. Taylor singled off Sonny Gray to produce an 8.0% swing for the Pirates, but Brendan Donovan answered immediately in the bottom half with a single off Carmen Mlodzinski worth 7.3%, neutralizing any momentum Pittsburgh had generated. The Pirates' best offensive moment came in the eighth inning when Henry Davis hit a home run off Andrew Kittredge for a 9.2% swing, but by that point the Cardinals lead was too firmly established to be challenged.

Arenado was the offensive catalyst for St. Louis, finishing with a WPA of plus-16.0% and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Brendan Donovan contributed plus-13.2% WPA and plus-1.5 RE24 to support the cause. On the mound, Sonny Gray was the game's most dominant performer, posting a remarkable plus-20.3% WPA, and Ryan Helsley added plus-6.3% WPA in relief to close things out. The DiamondIQ model favors pitching performances of this caliber as the primary driver in games where the Cardinals protect a mid-game lead, and Gray's outing fit that profile precisely.