MLB Recap · June 12, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

PHI6
Final
BOS8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI202000101691
BOS00015200-8130

The Story

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 8-6 at Fenway Park on June 12, 2024, in a game that appeared to swing heavily in Philadelphia's favor through three innings before Boston completely seized control. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Boston only a 35% chance of winning, a number that only declined further as the Phillies built a 4-0 lead through three innings, highlighted by Whit Merrifield's single off Nick Pivetta in the third that added 9.1% win probability to Philadelphia's ledger. From that point, however, the Red Sox authored one of the more decisive reversals of the night.

The turning point arrived in the bottom of the fifth inning, when Boston erupted for five runs against the Philadelphia bullpen in the single most consequential stretch of the game by win-probability measures. Enmanuel Valdez delivered a two-run double off José Ruiz that swung win probability 20.7% toward Boston, the biggest single play of the contest. Rob Refsnyder followed with a single off Ruiz worth another 15.9%, and Jarren Duran added a single against Cristopher Sánchez that moved the needle a further 13.8%. David Hamilton then extended the lead in the sixth with a home run off Spencer Turnbull that added 10.9% win probability, effectively putting the game beyond Philadelphia's reach and pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate to a near-certain Boston outcome.

On the strength of that fifth-inning explosion, Enmanuel Valdez finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus 22.1% with a RE24 of plus 2.3, while Jarren Duran and David Hamilton each contributed plus 14.7% and plus 14.1% WPA respectively, both posting a RE24 of plus 1.1. Boston's bullpen preserved the lead without incident, with Justin Slaten leading the relief corps at plus 4.5% WPA, followed by Zack Kelly at plus 3.2% and Cam Booser at plus 3.0%. The final line of 8-6 on 13 hits for Boston against 9 hits and an error for Philadelphia reflected a game that was far less competitive in its second half than its first.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalBOS win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 34.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Enmanuel Valdez Double
Bot 5th · off José Ruiz
+20.7%
Rob Refsnyder Single
Bot 5th · off José Ruiz
+15.9%
Jarren Duran Single
Bot 5th · off Cristopher Sánchez
+13.8%
David Hamilton Home Run
Bot 6th · off Spencer Turnbull
+10.9%
Whit Merrifield Single
Top 3rd · off Nick Pivetta
+9.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Enmanuel Valdez+22.1%+2.3 RE24
Jarren Duran+14.7%+1.1 RE24
David Hamilton+14.1%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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