Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

San Diego walked off with a 5-4 victory over Oakland at Petco Park on June 12, 2024, rallying from a deficit in dramatic fashion as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Padres win climbed from 68 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Athletics had turned the game on its head in the top of the sixth, stringing together hits against Wandy Peralta — a Shea Langeliers single that shifted win probability 13.4 points in Oakland's favor and a Tyler Soderstrom single worth 12.8 points — as part of a three-run outburst that gave the visitors a lead heading into the late innings. Oakland added another run in the eighth on a Zack Gelof double off Jeremiah Estrada, a swing worth 13.3 win-probability points, that briefly made the Padres' path look steep.

San Diego's comeback, however, was built on two decisive home runs that erased Oakland's lead entirely. Donovan Solano connected off Lucas Erceg in the bottom of the eighth, a blow the DiamondIQ model registered at plus 38.8 win-probability points, pulling the Padres back within reach. Then in the ninth, with the game still uncertain, Jackson Merrill ended it against Mason Miller with a walk-off home run that swung win probability by 41.4 points, the single largest play of the game. Merrill finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 47.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Solano posted an even more dominant run-context figure of plus 2.6 RE24 to go with his 42.2 WPA. On the pitching side, starter Stephen Kolek led San Diego's staff with plus 21.9 WPA, supported by Robert Suarez at plus 13.5 and Dany Jiménez at plus 12.4 as the bullpen preserved the conditions for the late-inning heroics.