Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

Seattle held off Chicago 4-3 at T-Mobile Park on June 11, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at an 82 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent. The White Sox actually built an early lead through the third inning, when Andrew Vaughn and Paul DeJong hit back-to-back home runs off Jhonathan Díaz — Vaughn's blast shifting win probability by plus 10.7 percent and DeJong's adding another 10.2 percent — to give Chicago a 3-1 advantage at that point. But Seattle's pitching staff quietly shut down the Chicago lineup from the fourth inning onward, and the White Sox managed just one run across the final six frames while committing two errors compared to Seattle's one.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Cal Raleigh laced a double off John Brebbia that swung win probability by plus 32.3 percent, the single largest play of the game. That hit capped a two-run inning that erased Chicago's lead and put Seattle ahead for good at 4-3. Korey Lee's strikeout against Mike Baumann to lead off the eighth, costing Chicago 11.4 percent in win probability, effectively ended any realistic path back for the visitors, as Seattle's bullpen locked down the final two innings without incident.

Raleigh finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus 36.3 percent WPA and plus 2.2 RE24. On the pitching side, Drew Thorpe led all arms at plus 21.1 percent WPA, followed by Ryne Stanek at plus 15.2 percent and Trent Thornton at plus 14.9 percent — a collective bullpen effort that preserved a narrow margin despite Chicago out-hitting Seattle ten base hits to five on the night.