Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates stunned the St. Louis Cardinals 2-1 at Busch Stadium on June 11, 2024, with all the scoring compressed into the final inning of a tightly pitched game. Through eight innings, both teams were locked in a scoreless tie, leaving the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home Cardinals win at a meaningful level before Pittsburgh broke through in the ninth. Bryan Reynolds was the offensive catalyst for Pittsburgh, finishing as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-27.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7. His seventh-inning triple off Miles Mikolas added 13.5 percent in win probability to the Pirates' ledger, and his ninth-inning walk off Ryan Helsley — a swing of plus-15.3 percent — proved instrumental in setting the table for Pittsburgh's two-run rally that ultimately decided the contest.

The pitching performances on both sides were the defining story through the first eight frames. Miles Mikolas led all pitchers with a plus-36.0 percent WPA, doing significant damage in the seventh when Ke'Bryan Hayes hit into a double play that shifted win probability 18.2 percent against Pittsburgh, and Paul Skenes contributed a plus-27.7 percent WPA effort for the Pirates. In the ninth, closer David Bednar secured the win in part thanks to Michael Siani's strikeout, which registered as the game's single biggest win-probability swing at plus-18.8 percent in Pittsburgh's favor. Connor Joe added plus-13.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2 for the Pirates, while Cardinals outfielder Alec Burleson provided a measure of late resistance with a plus-8.6 percent WPA showing. The Cardinals finished with eight hits to Pittsburgh's three but were unable to convert, falling at home as the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 53 percent home win probability collapsed to zero.