Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies handed the Boston Red Sox a 4-1 defeat at Fenway Park on June 11, 2024, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected just how complete the performance was, with Boston's pre-game win probability of 33 percent collapsing entirely to zero by the final out. Philadelphia scored in three separate innings, plating one run in the first, two in the fourth, and one in the fifth, while holding Boston to a single run on four hits. The Red Sox compounded their troubles with two errors, and Kutter Crawford absorbed the bulk of the damage against a Phillies lineup that consistently put the ball in play at inopportune moments.

The fourth inning was the game's decisive sequence. David Dahl reached on a fielding error, a play the DiamondIQ model credited with an 18.5 percent swing in win probability for Philadelphia and the single largest moment of the game. Bryson Stott followed with a double that added another 9.2 percent, and those two plays broke the game open. Stott finished the night as one of the three standout offensive contributors, posting a WPA of plus-10.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2. Dahl led all position players with a plus-15.5 percent WPA and a plus-0.8 RE24, while Kyle Schwarber capped the scoring with a solo home run in the fifth, also credited with a 9.2 percent win-probability swing, finishing at plus-6.9 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.7 RE24.

Zack Wheeler anchored the effort from the mound, leading all pitchers with a plus-23.0 percent WPA, a figure that underscores how thoroughly he controlled the game against a Boston offense that managed just four hits. Matt Strahm and Greg Weissert handled the late innings without incident, adding plus-5.2 and plus-2.1 percent WPA respectively to close out the victory. The model leans strongly toward crediting Wheeler's dominance as the foundational factor in Philadelphia's road win.