Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the New York Mets a 4-2 defeat at Citi Field on June 11, 2024, overcoming a pre-game environment in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the home side a 62 percent chance of winning. The Mets scratched across two runs in the second inning to take an early lead, but Miami answered emphatically in the fifth, stringing together the game's most consequential offensive sequence. Bryan De La Cruz laced a double off Tylor Megill that shifted win probability 14.5 percent in Miami's favor, and Jake Burger followed with a single worth an additional 11.2 percent swing, the two-run fifth frame effectively turning the game on its head. A ninth-inning Miami insurance run pushed the final margin to two.

The Mets had their opportunities to respond but could not convert when it mattered most. Francisco Lindor grounded into a double play in the bottom of the fifth off Jesús Luzardo, a sequence that swung win probability 10.4 percent against New York and extinguished a potential rally. In the eighth, J.D. Martinez flew out against Tanner Scott in a spot that cost the Mets 12.9 percent in win probability, and the bottom of the ninth saw Tyrone Taylor ground out to close the door, a play that, despite being an out, reflected a 14.4 percent positive swing for Miami as the final threat was neutralized.

On the pitching side, Tanner Scott was the most impactful arm in the game by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a plus-16.0 percent WPA contribution by handling the Mets' most dangerous late-game situations. Jesús Luzardo added plus-13.1 percent, his work in the fifth inning proving especially pivotal, while Andrew Nardi contributed plus-10.3 percent in relief. Among position players, De La Cruz led the Marlins with a plus-11.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2, reinforcing his fifth-inning double as the decisive offensive moment of the contest.